Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Line November 13, 2019

Predictions have varied erratically for the rate of electric-vehicle adoption and the date they’ll displace the internal combustion engine. But one indicator has remained consistent. No matter who is predicting, according to a researcher from the World Resources Institute, the predictions get bigger with every update.

“It’s not just that these projections are showing that there are going to be a lot of EVs on the road,” said Camron Gorguinpour, WRI’s senior manager for electric vehicles, “but year over year the same organizations that update their forecasts generally have tended to increase their forecasting. So each year that goes by, the future of mass adoption of electric mobility becomes more optimistic.”

Take, for example, OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries:

“No organization on the planet probably has less interest in mass electrification,” Gorguinpour said, “but even they are seeing, year-over-year, their forecasts increase for the global electric electric car stock.”

In its 2015 projection, OPEC anticipated less than 50 million electric vehicles on the road in 2040. In its 2018 projection, OPEC expects 300 million electric vehicles at that date.

That’s a significant chunk of the 1.2 billion vehicles expected to bedevil the world in the near future.

OPEC projections for global electric car stocks out to 2018

More conservative than OPEC, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has nonetheless also increased its estimates year after year. In its 2016 outlook, the EIA anticipated just under 4 million EVs on U.S. roads in 2040. In its 2018 outlook, that number jumped to nearly 19 million.

What Gorguinpour calls optimism — the consistent increases seen in annual updates — may matter more than the projections themselves. He added that many projections leave out an enormous portion of the market where EVs are thriving.

“These estimates don’t include two – and three-wheeled vehicles,” Gorguinpour said last week in a webinar hosted by Climate Action, “which are very important in many locations, particularly across Asia.”

ARTICLE: Forbes | The One Electric Vehicle Indicator That Only Goes Up

To be the first to hear about Project Updates, ASX Releases, Company News and more – CLICK HERE to subscribe to the Orocobre eNewsletter

Latest News &
Announcements

All our latest news, speeches, announcements, presentations and media releases from Orocobre Limited. The best way to stay up to date is to sign up for our newsletter.

  • 2021 Sustainability Report

    2021 Sustainability Report

    Please click below link to access Orocobre’s 2021 Sustainability report https://www.orocobre.com/wp/?mdocs-file=8108
  • Orocobre September Quarterly Production Briefing

    Orocobre September Quarterly Production Briefing

    Click below to listen to the Orocobre September Quarterly Production briefing held on 22 October at 10am AEST (Brisbane), 11am AEDT (Sydney, Melbourne)   https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1502460&tp_key=47dd92ae6d
  • International Lithium Association (ILiA) established for the ‘lithium century’

    International Lithium Association (ILiA) established for the ‘lithium century’

    ILiA has been formed to provide a central, global voice of the global lithium industry and their stakeholders, and to promote a sustainable and a responsible future for the lithium value chain.   “Our company’s vision to power a sustainable future supports the International Lithium Association’s goal to promote the reliable supply of lithium necessary... View Article

Be the first to know.
Subscribe Now.

We will never sell or share this information to anyone. Privacy Policy
© 2022 Orocobre Limited Pty Ltd